[CLUE-Talk] Why Iraq? Why now?

[Randy Arabie]

Good stuff, I will take a look at it.

I do have one comment.  You yourself have stated that the world is made
up of shades of grey.  However, it seems here that you are trying to
paint this one color...black (i.e. oil).

It would be foolish to think oil isn't a factor in our Middle East foreign policy,
and the current "crisis in Iraq".  But, I don't see oil as the only issue.  There 
are more (i.e. Israel v. Palistine and terrorism).


On Saturday,  1 February 2003 at  0:43:45 -0700, Matt Gushee <mgushee at havenrock.com> wrote:
> This recurring debate on Iraq is wearing me out. But I thought I'd
> present a selection of interesting links, with just a little commentary.
> 
> The Project for the New American Century (PNAC) is a think tank that is
> reported to have had a strong influence on the Bush administration's
> foreign policy. Several current members of the administration are or
> have been associated with the project, notably Paul Wolfowitz. Here is
> an excerpt from PNAC's 1998 letter to then-president Clinton:
> 
>   The only acceptable strategy is one that eliminates the possibility
>   that Iraq will be able to use or threaten to use weapons of mass
>   destruction.  In the near term, this means a willingness to undertake
>   military action as diplomacy is clearly failing. In the long term, it
>   means removing Saddam Hussein and his regime from power. That now
>   needs to become the aim of American foreign policy.
>   
>   (http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqclintonletter.htm)
> 
> The signatories of this letter included Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld,
> Richard Perle, Elliott Abrams, and Richard Armitage.
>   
> The 2002 policy paper _Rebuilding America's Defenses_ takes a new and
> more revealing tack on the Iraq problem:
> 
>   Indeed, the United States has for decades sought to play a more
>   permanent role in Gulf regional security. While the unresolved
>   conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for
>   substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue
>   of the regime of Saddam Hussein.
> 
>   (http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf)
> 
> Read that carefully.
> 
> Why exactly are we so interested in Gulf regional security, anyway? 
> 
> What else could the reason be but oil?
> 
> And what is the specific concern around oil? 
> 
> According to sources I have read, world oil production will most likely
> peak in the near future, possibly in the next 5-20 years. And when that
> happens--not in the much more distant future when the oil comes close to
> actually running out--things will start to get very ugly. Certainly
> there will be intense competition and rapid price increases for energy;
> resource wars seem to be a strong possibility. From what I have seen,
> this projection is not mere environmentalist doomsaying, but the
> thoroughly-researched opinion of respected petroleum industry analysts
> (note, however, that this is difficult to fully confirm, since I haven't
> found any open-access petroleum industry sites). But anyway, here are
> some of the better links I've found:
> 
>   http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/jm_oil_000.html
>   http://www.iea.org/g8/world/oilsup.htm
>   http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
>   http://www.ems.org/oil_depletion/story.html
> 
> Also, a Google search for "peak oil production" turns up quite a few
> hits.
> 
> If these projections are indeed well-known and believed in the oil
> industry, then we can reasonably guess that they are very much on Dick
> Cheney's mind. So here's a hypothesis:
> 
>   Cheney and his war faction believe they are doing us all a favor by
>   going out and grabbing a share of the remaining oil before the shit
>   hits the fan.
> 
>   If you ask me, part of a sensible response to the coming scarcity
>   would be an aggressive program of conservation and alternative energy
>   development. But that, of course, has the potential to cut into the
>   profits of Big Oil.
> 
> -- 
> Matt Gushee                 When a nation follows the Way,
> Englewood, Colorado, USA    Horses bear manure through
> mgushee at havenrock.com           its fields;
> http://www.havenrock.com/   When a nation ignores the Way,
>                             Horses bear soldiers through
>                                 its streets.
>                                 
>                             --Lao Tzu (Peter Merel, trans.)
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-- 
Allons Rouler!
        
Randy
http://www.arabie.org/
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