[clue-talk] Apple riding the Tsunami of....

[Sean LeBlanc]

On 05-16 19:01, Nate Duehr wrote:
> Sean LeBlanc wrote:
> >On 05-16 09:24, Kevin Cullis wrote:
> >
> >>what?
> >>
> >>Take a read and make your predictions:
> >>
> >>http://www.macsimumnews.com/index.php/archive/next_wave_tigers_real_secret_weapon_to_rock_the_market/
> >>
> >>The interesting question: where is Linux in this?
> >
> >
> >My prediction is that this is hyperbole and that Apple continues to get
> >marginalized. Sure, they've enjoyed good sales of the Ipod and OS X is 
> >neat,
> >but someone will come along and kick the iPod to the curb on
> >price/features/branding. And OS X only has <2% of the market?
> 
> I would agree, but Apple does something that not a single other computer 
> company really gives more than lip-service to, and it seems to be the 
> backbone of their products -- and I think they know it too:
> 
> They make all of it easy to use for an average person.
> 
> Of course, I've also been realizing as of late that there are a much 
> larger percentage of people out there who will gladly pay 1/2 the price 
> of an Apple product and work harder keeping the machine running, doing 
> what they need.  There's also a large percentage of people who simply 
> believe in the religion that computers are supposed to be hard to use.
> 
> I call it a religion because imagine the emotional gut-level response if 
> a CEO said "I refuse to hire a help desk or set up any trouble ticketing 
> systems for my large enterprise, and I expect the computers will work 
> perfectly"... they'd be laughed off the Street.
> 
> However... I know of at least one medium-sized company that is using 
> 100% Apple products that both have has a SINGLE sysadmin who's 
> maintaining things, and generally nothing breaks.  XServe with XRAID, 
> and all Mac clients... the systems work every day, and rarely crash. 
> And users can fix their own problems most of the time.
> 
> It *is* a possibility, but the world prefers not to believe it is, and 
> there's too many of us who trust that computers will BREAK regularly and 
> who BANK on that for our livelihood.  That's no recipe for better 
> computing.
> 
> Apple's headed somewhere else.  I applaud them for their dedication to 
> stuff that "just works" and does it elegantly.  There may be better 
> "iPod like" devices in terms of feature-set and size, but you'll never 
> beat the user interface for someone who's computer-illiterate.
> 
> My opinions anyway, just for discussion-fodder.  ;-)

Yup. I admit the very high possibility that I could be wrong. But if John C.
Dvorak can be so consistently wrong over the years, and still be paid for
it, I figure I could spout my opinion for free... :) 

I used to be a big Apple fan back when I went to Drexel. I still liked it
when I transferred to Penn State (they used all PCs, and had no Mac labs for
some time at the campus I went to). I was even probably what you'd call one
of the "true believers" that the book _The Culting of Brands_ talks about.

I actually worked at a co-op job supporting quite a few Macs. These people
*defined* computer-illiterate. In fact, we had to turn OFF MultiFinder in
some cases because running more than one app at a time just confused some of
these folks. Things worked okay, but upon later reflection, some of these
same folks used VAX applications if they were given proper training, so I
don't think they wouldn't have been able to use DOS, I just think they would
have needed more training. To be fair, this was in the 1990-1991 time frame,
BTW, so the whole GUI thing was a paradigm shift rippling through the
office... 

I think the iPod interface is, er, okay (and it doesn't always "just work" -
I've had many problems, but they may be due to the fact that I'm syncing
with a non-Mac), but the iPod's interface could easily be ripped off. If
that's what Apple is betting on to keep the lead, they are hosed - unless
they have some stupid "look-and-feel" patents like they tried in the 80's -
and they actually win this time. As much as I hate to admit it (because it
reflects so poorly on the human race) it will probably be branding that wins
the day...

The whole argument you are making about things not breaking could be applied
to some UNIX systems in general. People still generate the usual FUD about
*nix being harder to support, needs more admins, higher paid admins, etc. I
think people believe what they want to believe and come to the conclusions
they want to come to when it comes to TCO, uptime, and the like. I
personally believe that using computers will remain difficult, depending on
what you are doing. If you are doing word processing, well, then, no it
shouldn't be that hard, and Xerox, Apple, MS and others have worked to make
it so that it isn't. But there are other apps that aren't so easily
abstracted away by putting an interface on them...even the person who wants
to do serious document layout will run into troubles with the GUI
eventually. Word irritated me enough over layout issues that I ran to LaTeX. 

Well, enough semi-coherent rambling from me...

-- 
Sean LeBlanc:seanleblanc at comcast.net  
A man always needs to remember one thing about a beautiful woman. Somewhere, 
somebody's tired of her.