[CLUE-Talk] Walmart selling mandrake systems

[David Anselmi]

Richard Knechtel wrote:
> 
> Although I am a devoute SuSE fan, I am gald to see Mandrake (one of the top
> distros) being sold on a desktop as an alternative to Winblows!

A prediction: Microsoft's OS monopoly is on its way out.

I was just reading about network externalities and how they fuel rapid
growth.  The example was credit cards--they aren't useful until everyone
accepts them, but no one wants to have/accept them until they are
useful.  But once use reaches critical mass, growth is extremely rapid
because the more people who use them, the more useful they are.

This also played a part in Microsoft's success.  At some point, there
were more PCs than Apples so the software shops wrote more PC software,
so people had more incentive to buy PCs.  The driver to critical mass in
that case was price.

The more people who use Linux, the more useful it is (to the
non-technical user, using what everyone else has is important).  So once
Linux reaches critical mass on the desktop, the Windows market will
implode.

Again, price and the benefits of Open Source are driving us towards
critical mass.  It is only a matter of time.

Passport is a counter to the rise of Linux.  It has the potential to be
very useful and benefits from the same network externalities.  And it
will cause MS lock-in.  So fight Passport wherever you can.  And get
Linux in the schools so the next generation of non-technical users is
comfortable with it.

Dave

(Thanks to "Security Engineering" by Ross Anderson for sparking these
insights.)