It is all about Oil [WAS Re: [CLUE-Talk] Traitors, Cowards, Scoundrels, and Intelligent Dissenters]

[Randy Arabie]

On Tuesday,  1 April 2003 at  0:02:02 -0700, Jeffery Cann <fabian at jefferycann.com> wrote:
> On Monday 31 March 2003 09:55 pm, Randy Arabie wrote:
> <snip>
> 
> > Answer to 3a) - Your primary arguement against this seems to be that the
> > Bush administration cannot predict the future, and therefore this war
> > isn't worth the gamble.  
> 
> Since I didn't state it simply, here it goes:
>
> I am afraid that this war will cause more long-term harm than short-term gain.  
> I think it will foster more dissent and anti-American sentiment in the world, 
> particularly the Muslim world.  Each day, I read and view news reports from 
> other middle eastern countries that are burning flags and effigys of Bush, 
> etc.  Given that these people are oppressed by dictatorships, misinformed by 
> their government-controlled media outlets, how won't our attack of Iraq add 
> to their fervor?  Do we simply need to liberate the entire middle east, so 
> those countries will become democratic?
> 
> Will the act of foisting democracy on Iraq will change the minds of these 
> dissidents?  This is the risk I was writing about in my last post.  I don't 
> think it will pay off.

I think it may in fact be the opposite.  A short-term wave of higher
anti-American sentiment among the Arab and Muslim world with a long-term
payoff of less anti-American sentiment, more democracy in the Middle
East, and hence more peace.

Yes, there will probably be more terrorist attacks against US interests.
Will there be more than if we had not gone to war against the Iraqi
regime?  I don't know, and I don't think anyone can be certain one way
or the other.  Would there have been terrorist attacks against US
interests if we had not gone to war against the Iraqi regime?  Yes, and I
think most people will agree.

The radical Islamic terrorists have asserted that they seek to remove
all western influences and the State of Israel from the Middle East.
That is what they demand, and they won't stop until it happens or they
are dead...whichever comes first.  Anything less, and they will continue
their fight.  That leaves us with few choices.

> > Your other arguement is that the prosepect of this war brining lasting
> > peace in the Middle East is "highly unlikely according to most middle
> > east experts". Perhaps the experts are right.  But I was convinced that
> > the war was justifiable before the arguement that "it will bring peace
> > to the middle east" was made.
> 
> What are the reason(s) that you believe this war is justified?

Outlined here:

http://clue.denver.co.us/pipermail/clue-talk/2003-March/005129.html

> > I do think bringing democracy to Iraq will help foster peace in the
> > Middle East.  
> 
> You make this statement without giving me something to change my mind.  Is 
> this just your opinion or is there some reason you think it?

It is my opinion.  In my opinion, democracy is founded on a number of
principles which foster peace.  Some of those are free elections,
individual liberty, and individual rights.  Democratic nations tend to
be peacefull nations, and don't typically foster terrorists.  Democratic
nations tend to have a higher standard of living and greater
opportunities for their people.

> Finally, let me state that one of the reasons I don't think democracy will 
> take hold in Iraq is the huge cultural differences among the peoples of Iraq. 
> When I think about Iraq versus three commonly-cited democracies (USA, Japan, 
> Germany), I think that building a legitimate democracy in a heterogenous 
> cultural environment is more challenging, if not impossible.

Yes, there are major hurdles to bringing democracy to the Middle East.
It won't "just happen."  The Middle Eastern cultures are very different
than Japan, Germany, and the US.

Does that mean we shouldn't try?  I don't think so.  Democracy does
appear to be working in Turkey.  Turkey is a predominantly Muslim
country with a secular government.
-- 
Allons Rouler!
        
Randy
http://www.arabie.org/