[CLUE-Talk] Bush to order bipartisian review of Iraq allegations of WMD

[Randy Arabie]

Quoting Jeff Cann <j.cann at isuma.org>:

> On Wednesday 04 February 2004 1:39 pm, Randy Arabie wrote:
> >    The Logic of Intelligence Hype and Blindness
> >
> >    Bruce G. Blair, Ph.D, CDI President, bblair at cdi.org
> >    Dec. 11, 2003 (updated Dec. 30, 2003)
> >
> >    http://www.cdi.org/blair/intelligence.cfm
> 
> So, you offered a mathematical model that does not appear to consider common 
> sense to suggest that we didn't have enough iterations of intelligence to 
> determine the truth and/or explain away the problems with our government's 
> intelligence?

I'm not sure what your question is...or even if you are actually asking a
question.  That reads more like a run-on sentance ending with a question mark. 

> Several people, most notably, Bruce Schnier, have suggested that the problems
> with our intelligence is the reliance on automation via computers, rather 
> than 'on the ground' intelligence.

Yeah, does any of this sound familiar?

http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20030715-094950-2180r.htm
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/community/DailyNews/chat_bobbaer020118.html
http://search.csmonitor.com/durable/1997/08/06/opin/opin.2.html

I agree with you, if you mean to say we rely too much on satellite
imagery and communication intercepts.  That is a well known and well documented
problem.  By some estimates, the CIA let approximately 60% of it's "human
sources" go in the mid 1990's...thanks to the Clinton Administration [heh, I've
been waiting for another opportunity to blame him ;-) ]

> Perhaps to avoid another invasion debacle, we should look at relying less on
> Bayesian mathematical models and more on knowledge gained from social 
> interactions.

I believe you misunderstood the analysis done by Mr. Blair.  He wasn't making an
argument for (or against) the use of Bayesian mathematical models. He simply
used a Bayesian model and logic to demonstrate how, with all the intelligence
data that was available (both  HUMINT and SIGINT), the intelligence agencies and
politicians could logically conclude that Iraq had WMD.  His demonstration also
illustrated equally how easy it was to miss the signs that could have provided
warning for the 9/11 attacks.

Additionally, the use of such methodology is independant of how the intelligence
was gathered.  It works equally well with HUMINT or SIGINT.

> No amount of spin will fix this problem.

Call it spin if you will, I'm quite skeptical that you and your anti-war friends
would actually support a proposal to increase spending for spies.
-- 
Allons Rouler!

Randy
http://www.arabie.org/