[clue-talk] Hello CLUE peak oil fact or fiction ? PS**

[Gus S Calabrese]

On 2006-Aug 07, at 10:55hrs AM, Sean LeBlanc wrote:

On 08-07 10:53, Matt Gushee wrote:
>
> Then there's peak oil to think about. The pessimists say it's already
> happened, and the optimists put it forty or fifty years in the future.
> Either way, anything energy-efficient is going to become more  
> important
> to all of us.

Hardly....... Once the pain becomes great enough, energy production  
will shift
to producing hydrogen as an energy store mechanism.  Water is split  
into hydrogen
and oxygen.  The hydrogen is burned later to produce localized  
energy.  Making
hydrogen is well understood.  And where will the energy to create  
hydrogen come from ?
The easiest method is nuclear and as the energy pain increases,  
fission will become
fashionable again.  Right behind fission is fusion.  As the pain  
becomes greater, fusion
will be made into a reality.  Solar conversion will be right behind.   
One will see solar
converters everywhere there is frequent sun.  Colorado will be  
blanketed with them.
Solar converters will be built into all sorts of surfaces.   
Buildings, roadways, parking lots,
etc.  Energy efficiency will play a part but I expect to see per  
capita energy use go up,
not down.
Gus

Yup. After seeing _End of Suburbia_, I definitely had my eyes opened.  
It may
be one of the most extreme outlooks, but it might be actually correct. I
think most Americans have their head firmly planted in the sand (or
elsewhere) on this one, and having the most pessimistic view may be  
the most
adult approach, especially if it causes Americans to start demanding
alternatives.

Interestingly, WSJ had a chart in which they gave average MPG - it's  
worse
now than it was in the 80's, despite gains in technology to boost  
efficiency
in MPG - Americans opted for larger and larger vehicles (mostly  
trucks and
SUVs). Of course, we may be turning a corner in that regard, since  
I've seen
WSJ already use the phrase "post-SUV, post-minivan era".

I heard the author of _The Long Emergency_ on a podcast, and already  
had it
on my reading list, but bumped it up a bit in the priority and will  
start
reading it as soon as the hold is ready at the lib.


-- 
Sean LeBlanc:seanleblanc at comcast.net
http://sean-leblanc.blogspot.com/
I have no idea what the mind of a lowlife scoundrel is like; but I  
know what
the mind of an honest man is like. It is terrifying.
-Abel Hermant
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Gus S Calabrese
Denver, CO
720 222 1309     303 908 7716 cell
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